As stock markets crashed yet again around the world the feeling that no single solution exists to the prevailing dire economic conditions is intensified and I am beginning to think that we are almost at the point of no return. The point of no return is the moment the vicious cycle downward no longer finds bottom and continues only to deteriorate. In many ways the equity boom of the last couple of years has done us no service since it obscured the truth that at grass roots nothing is happening. Houses are not selling, businesses are closing down and the consumer has stopped spending. Everyone is waiting for someone else to do something. But it may now be too late.

I don´t think it is too much of an exaggeration to say that in my own area, the southern coast of Spain, perhaps fifty per cent of small businesses are ready to close. Many have already closed, others have been hanging on and waiting for things to turn around. Every businessman I speak to, from recreation to real estate, says the same thing: this year things are worse than last, and last year was dreadful! Those businesses who have been hanging on by a thread waiting for things to turn around cannot last much longer. Once they go, what´s left?

We run the risk of seeing entire areas of commercial activity wiped out, a scenario of empty shops and businesses that no one wants. Businessmen from other countries I speak to say this is the same everywhere, in every part of the globe. We have constructed an interconnected network between nations that is great during times of prosperity but universally a catastrophe during times like these.

Perhaps at that point, those money men who have been pocketing billions from the gold rush may step in and buy up swathes of land at near zero cost with a view to massive profits two decades down the line. Perhaps that was the plan all along. But in the short and medium term, the prospect is one of a retail desert from which many areas will not be able to recover. Into this economic void destitution and crime will flourish, banks will run out of money, and a gloom of near biblical proportions will take root.

There is no satisfaction under these circumstances for a “told you so”, but many politicians (and this author) have been warning for years that the austerity measures were too much too quick and could only succeed in bringing about the double dip recession which will make repayment of sovereign debt near impossible.

There may still be time for a marshall plan style of recovery but this must happen not at boardroom level but direct to the grass roots. Massive incentives for young entrepreneurs and for new home owners to generate a new kick start. A waiver of taxes and costs for new start-ups. Subsidies to new businesses. Rents converted to mortgages for those wishing to buy their own properties. At the same time massive new taxation levels for those earning in excess of half a million dollars a year should go directly to paying off debts. How serious does it need to get before those in power start to listen?

Milton Johanides is a retired businessman, church elder, writer and artist. He has been featured on BBC TVs Songs of Praise, owned numerous art galleries and once ran an award winning picture framing business in Scotland. The views expressed in these articles are his own. email: miltonjohanides@yahoo.co.uk

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